Kevin Rhodes (cormac) wrote,
Kevin Rhodes

For SCA folk, some numbers and a question.

I was looking through Caid's Royal Scribe's page, and observing some numbers provided there. Have a look:

Eilidh includes research done by Wilhelm von Frankfurt, who recorded the number of different types of awards given in a four-year period. Taking the numbers a bit further, I calculated the percentage of gentles recognized with one award being elevated to the next level, and came up with some interesting oddities in the numbers.

FieldAoA-levelGoA-level(% AoA)PoA-level (% GoA, % AoA)
Heavies16.6254.125(24.8%)3.875(93.9%, 23.3%)
Arts24.3758(32.8%)1.75 (21.9%, 7.2%)
Service4514.5(32%)2(13.8%, 4.4%)
Totals8626.625(31.0%)7.625(28.6%, 8.9%)

Here's what I find interesting about this table. There are more Dolphins given than Crescent Swords and Harp Argents combined (ditto with the Crescent to Gauntlet/Lux Caidis ratio). If trends were indicative, the Pelican would be the most commonly given peerage in the realm (from the overall elevation ratio of GoA- to PoA-level awards given, ~4.15 Pelicans would be bestowed every reign). Yet the actual peerage numbers don't reflect this ratio.

In reality, knighthood is the most commonly given peerage in Caid, with more knights being made than Laurels and Pelicans combined. In fact, from the numbers given, one who is admitted to the Order of the Gauntlet is practically guaranteed a knighthood (93% elevation rate) and nearly one in four Crescent Swords given will result in membership in the Order of Chivalry. By contrast, only 4.4% of Dolphins will become a Pelican, with a 13.8% elevation rate for Crescent companions.

Given that AoA- to GoA-level ratios are about the same, why is there such a discrepancy? Why are so many service-related awards given in Caid, but so few service-related peerages? Why is the elevation ratio in the heavies circles so high?

I open the floor for discussion.
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